Michael Seery's Closing Commodity Comments & Trading Rules For 4-15-13

in Seery Futures Exclusive Newsletter

Precious Metal Futures-- The precious metals in New York are getting absolutely hammered this afternoon continuing their bearish trend with gold trading down $135 an ounce at 1,367 in the June contract right near a new 2 year low & now has dropped $200 dollars in 2 days looking at support at 1,300 which was hit in January of 2011 as investors are selling relentlessly at this time as the commodity markets in general are extremely bearish with traders thinking that deflation is coming back despite the fact that governments around the world are printing money. I have been extremely bearish the gold market and this sector as a whole and if you read any my previous blogs I believed that prices could crash and that is exactly what is happening, however at this point in time I would be covering my short positions and sitting on the sidelines waiting for some chart structure to develop so I would be taking my $200 profit in 2 days which is absolutely remarkable and on 1 contract that equals a $20,000 profit or loss. Silver futures are down $3 today at 23.35 in the May contract and is now down about $4 in 2 days with the next major support all the way down at $18 an ounce hitting a 2 ½ year low today and is now $27 from its all-time high price of $50 which was just hit a couple years back and anything associated with the precious metals is being sold today. Copper futures for the July contract are down 1100 points at 3.26 a pound with the next major support at 3.00 which was hit on 11 – 11 and in my opinion I do believe copper prices will break that level in the next couple of weeks continuing its bearish momentum as it is clear in my opinion that the bear markets will continue going into the summer months. If you are looking at the daily charts of the precious metals they look very bearish that is why you trade with the trend its clear to me that the trend is lower and look at the palladium & platinum prices in the last week with Palladium having a head and shoulders top created last week and prices are a lot more reasonable now than they were just a week ago so if you get another tremendous selloff in the sector there could be some buying opportunities at lower prices because eventually with all of the money printing around the world reflation will come back down the road. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

 

Grain Futures--- The grain market in Chicago this afternoon sold off sharply along with the rest of the commodity markets across the board continuing their bearish trend and as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I am very bearish grain prices at these ridiculously high levels with record crops possibly coming in this fall and I do believe November soybeans which are down another $.24 today at 12.07 hitting another 11 month low and still trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average with excellent chart structure . If you’re looking to get short the soybeans place a stop above the 10 day high which is 12.48 risking around $.35 or $1,750 per contract therefore minimizing monetary losses in case the trend changes. I believe prices will break $12 soon and had back down near contract lows of 11.40 as the new crop soybeans in my opinion are way overpriced especially when you see silver, gold, and the energy market absolutely melting down again today. Corn futures which have been rallying and actually hit a 2 week high on Friday were down $.19 today at 5.30 in the December contract still not at contract lows but I still believe that corn prices are headed lower as well also pushing wheat down $.19 at $7 .00 a bushel in the July contract as I’ve stated another previous blogs I am bearish the corn market but the wheat market at this point in time I’m sitting on the sidelines because there is no trend developing. The Midwest is receiving more ample rain and in some areas even snow which is going to set off an excellent planting season in my opinion as traders are not worried about drought at this point in time but they are more worried about deflation and the fact that mass liquidation is taking place in the commodity markets. My suggestion to traders is to continue to be short November soybeans because I do believe they have another $.75 -$1.00 to the downside in the next couple of weeks and if a record crop develops I believe you could see $8.00 in soybeans and $3 corn once again. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

 

Energy Futures--   The energy complex sold off sharply in sympathy with the rest of the commodity markets as China’s growth is slowing down quickly which is spooking investors to sell off everything in sight including precious metals, grains, and the energy sector as deflation could  possibly be in the air once again pushing prices substantially lower with crude oil down $2.80 a barrel at 88.50 and now is down over $6 dollars in 3 days trading far below its 20 & 100 day moving average with major support at $87 – $88 hitting a 5 month low and if those levels are broken and in my opinion I think they will be broken possibly in tomorrow’s session which would  hit a 10 month low and I would be looking at either selling the futures contract or buying bear put spreads in the August contract. Heating oil futures hit a 9 month low in the May contract down another 700 points and as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I am extremely bearish heating oil as we enter the summer months when demand should decrease significantly now we are looking at heading back down to 2.60 which was the contract low on 6-26-12 and in my opinion I think will be there within the next 4 to 6 weeks as an absolute bloodbath in the commodity markets will continue in my opinion also pushing unleaded gasoline to 6 month lows with a triple bottom on the weekly chart at 2.50  currently trading at 2.74 down another 600 points today as the economies around the world are starting to slow down especially in China and I do believe we are headed down to those levels just like we did last June if you look at the daily charts this is almost identical except for the fact that is happening a little faster especially in the precious metals where an absolute collapse has happened in the  last couple of days. I’m advising traders to be short across the board in the energy sector just like I have been advising in the last couple weeks you can play this 2 different ways by selling the futures contract or by looking at bear put spreads depending on the size of your account and what your risk tolerance is , but I do believe that prices are headed substantially lower from these levels. All 3 energy products are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I also stated in previous blogs the further away you trade from those moving averages the stronger the trend and I believe this trend is just starting to develop in the crude oil and if it breaks 87.00 a barrel look out because I think you can head all down the $75 very quickly. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

 

 

 

When Do You Add To Your Winning Trade?   This has always been a very interesting question because it can create a situation of going from rags to riches or from riches to rags in a very short amount of time. Many times I see traders abuse pyramiding or adding to positions with utter lack of any type of money management system in place and letting it ride which usually ends up in a complete wipeout of capital and sometimes even worse. Commodity prices can move very quickly with large gains or loses like we experienced in the 2008 crash of stock and commodity prices, so you always have to use stops and not fall in love or marry a position. In my opinion the answer to this question is add only once to the trade if that position has made you at least 1%-2% of your account balance while still having stop losses on all positions that equal 2% loss at a maximum risk. Remember your stop loses will be different on both positions because of the fact that you entered those trades at a different date and price.  If you are looking for a futures or option  broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com   Skype Address: mike.seery3

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

 

 

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