Mike Seery's Daily Commodity Report 12-17-15

17 Dec in Blog, commodity consulting, commodity consulting live cattle futures, commodity trading, copper futures, corn futures, feeder cattle futures, futures broker, gold futures, Kansas City wheat, Lean hog futures, Michael Seery, Minneapolis wheat, oat futures, option broker, options broker, palladium futures, platinum futures, rough rice futures, Seery Futures.com, silver futures, soybean futures, soybean meal futures, soybean oil futures, wheat futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cocoa Futures--- Cocoa futures are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive session trading down by 30 points currently at 3260 as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 3350 as prices have now hit a 5 week low as I’m looking to add more contracts to this position if prices close below 3300.

Cocoa prices are trading below their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average which tells you how far this market has rallied over the last several months as I remain bearish with the next major level of support around 3200 so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion.

Cocoa prices topped out around the 3400 level and if you took the original trade you going to have to assume the original risk as the 10 day high currently stands at 3429 and will not be lowered until next week’s trade as now prices have broken major support.

The U.S dollar is up over 100 points as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in yesterday trade which is putting pressure on many of the commodity markets this morning including cocoa prices as I see the dollar continuing to move higher possibly breaking 100 in next week’s trade so take advantage of any rallies as I think prices still have much lower to go. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

 

 

 

 

 

Rough Rice Futures--- Rough Rice futures in the January contract are down 2 cents trading at 10.93 continuing its bearish momentum as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 12.40 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which has been lowered dramatically down to 11.22 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. If we’re not stopped out of this trade come Monday we will have to roll into the March contract due to expiration as I still think lower prices are ahead as the U.S dollar is up 110 points this Thursday afternoon as I think that will pressure grain prices even further.

Rice prices have gone sideways over the last week with major support at 10.76 and if that is broken I think we could possibly break $10 in the coming weeks as soybean, corn, and wheat prices continue to head lower on a daily basis as I think that will start to pressure rice prices even further.

The commodity markets in my opinion still look weak as I have many short positions currently, but the only position I have in the grain market at the current time is shorting rice as this trend has been very solid as we have been in this market for over 6 weeks so remain short. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

 

 

 

 

Trading Theory---This rule is extremely important and I witness it being abused constantly creating tremendous loses that are sometimes difficult to come back from. Never add to a losing position because if the position continues to go against you and now you have added even more contracts which are all losing money your account will suffer loses much more than 2% and in some case adding positions and never getting out of a losing trade has wiped peoples trading accounts down to zero because of 1 or 2 bad trades.

Remember always play for another day you will have losing trades and the good traders manage losses and move on to the next possible trade.

 

 

 

 

Sugar Futures---Sugar futures in the March contract are trading higher by 14 points this Thursday in New York trading at 14.73 a pound as I’m now recommending a short position while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 15.62 risking around 90 points or $1,000 per contract plus slippage and commission. Sugar futures are right near a 4 week low with major support around 14.35 and if that level is broken the bear market could be underway as prices are still up over 300 points in the last three months as the commodity markets in general are very weak so I’m going to take advantage of these relatively high prices.

At the current time I've been recommending a short cocoa position as the cocoa and sugar charts look almost identical as I think prices will start to break down as crude oil prices are down on a daily basis and that could start to pressure sugar which is used as a biodiesel as all of the bullish fundamental news such as crop production losses in Brazil and strong demand are already priced into this market so look for a lower prices ahead. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

 

 

 

 

Lean Hog Futures--- Lean hog futures in the June contract are down 140 points currently trading at 74.90 as I have been recommending a short position from around the 76.00 level as I stuck my neck out on this trade as this was countertrend which I only do a couple of times throughout the year as I think hog prices are way too expensive compared to cattle and the rest of the commodity markets.

The commodity markets in general are getting crushed this afternoon due to the fact that the U.S dollar is up 110 points and if you did not take this trade I’m still recommending to sell even at today’s price level as this market has rallied around 500 points over the last 4 weeks so continue to remain short and possibly even add more positions to this trade.

I have been very surprised about the rally in hogs over the last month as expansion has increased tremendously as there are a lot of hogs in this country and I still think sharply lower prices are ahead as a retest of 70.00 is in the cards in my opinion so be aggressive on this trade and get short. TREND: MIXED--HIGHER–CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

 

 

 

 

Silver Futures--- Silver prices in the March contract are down $.50 this Thursday afternoon in New York reversing yesterday’s rally as I was recommending a short position yesterday at 14.20 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop above the 10 day high which stands at 14.63, however in Monday’s trade that will be lowered tremendously to 14.33 as the chart structure will tighten up considerably.

Silver prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as the next major level of resistance is at 13.62 which was hit in Monday’s trade which is also the contract low and if that is broken I think prices can trade down to the $11 range within the next month or so.

The U.S dollar is up 110 points putting pressure on many commodity prices as gold prices are down $27 as well as I thought yesterday was a gift that was given to us trading higher by $.40 before the announcement so I took advantage of the special situation so remain short in my opinion. At the current time I am short many commodities as I still think there is another leg down as I see no reason to own anything at the current time as I cannot stress that fact enough. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

 

 

 

 

S&P 500 Futures--- The S&P 500 in the March contract currently is trading lower by 20 points at 2043 as I’ve been recommending a short position from right around this level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 2089 risking around 45 points or $2,300 per contract plus slippage and commission. The S&P 500 rallied sharply yesterday after the Federal Reserve announced that they will raise the interest rate by 25%, however there is a little more pessimism in today’s trade as higher interest rates usually mean lower stock prices.

The S&P hit a 9 week low in Monday’s trade only to rally sharply over the last 3 days, but I still remain bearish despite the fact that I do not sell the S&P very often. The S&P 500 is trading below its 20 day but still above its 100 day moving average and has had a very difficult time crossing the 2100 level which has been hit on about a half a dozen times over the last 6 months so stay short & place the proper stop loss risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as I still think there is room to run to the downside.

The commodity markets today are getting crushed as the U.S dollar is up 145 points and I think eventually that will start to have an effect on stock prices as the 10 day low will come down in Monday’s trade therefore lowering monetary risk. TREND: LOWER ---MIXED–CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

 

 

 

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-312-224-8140 he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com Skype Address: mike.seery3 TWITTER---@seeryfutures

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There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

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